Foreword to: Disaster Management and Information Technology
By Pete Gaynor
Foreword
We are living in a world of information overload. Whether it is from a variety of social media platforms, the growing and increasingly connected internet-of-things, expanding citizen journalists, traditional media outlets or professional and amateur pundits adding their voice to the fray, the information we receive, whether voluntary or involuntary, can be overwhelming, clouding our ability to make even the simplest of decisions.
When a disaster strikes, managing time-critical information adds to the complexity for those disaster survivors in need of accurate information and is nearly impossible for those charged with making life-saving decisions to alleviate the pain and suffering of those survivors.
I have spent the last 13 years as a professional emergency manager, at every level, local, state, and federal, using various technologies such as Crisis Information Management Systems (CIMS) to add clarity to the disaster “fog of war.” As a profession, we are still hunting for the ultimate disaster management decision support system; it has been elusive.
Let me reflect on my time as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator during the Nation’s response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) starting in February 2020. It was clear we did not have all the data we needed to make well-informed decisions. In some cases, the data we needed did not exist. In other cases, the data existed but not in a form that was useful or digestible. For the remainder data that existed, the sheer volume of data became all-consuming. Everything from the amount of personal protective equipment (PPE) in each state, to hospital visits by those with COVID-19 symptoms, to providing resources for natural disasters intertwined with COVID-19 impacts, a comprehensive common operating picture (COP) was unclear. With time the COP became clearer, but in many cases, the data remained unavailable, or the timeliness of information quickly perished.
It remains critical to have access to and understanding of real-time data, from government, private and public sectors in order to drive timely decisions. This information must be linked directly to critical infrastructure and interdependencies; the emergency manager must have access to comprehensive key data sets and
how they may impact the unfolding disaster. Most importantly we must have the apparatus; the technological solutions and the human skill sets to drive decisions that we humans can only make.
Information overload is the primary enemy of timely decision-making. Too much information strains the decision-making process and can grind progress to a halt. Early in a disaster, emergency managers are seeking any bit of information that may point them to a solution but often those first reports are mischaracterized or plain wrong. With piles of sometimes random information, the task is now to sift through all the information with the hopes of finding that golden nugget that will change the tide of the rapidly deteriorating disaster. Instead of taking positive actions to mitigate the disaster, emergency managers are now in a race against the ticking “decisionaction clock” looking for mission-critical information. If you miss the time that your “timely decision” will change the outcome in a positive way, then it is back to the starting line to start the process all over again. While you are head-down digging for critical information, the unfolding situation continues to spin out of control out of your view. If you fail to intervene, then what was once a straightforward problem now turns chaotic, creating additional challenges and information requirements. In the military planning community, there is a term used to help narrow down critical information; “latest time information is of value” or LTIOV. Our current-day CIMS are not built to meet this requirement.
To better meet this requirement, the “creators” of future CIMS should adopt another foundational element of information derived from the military called Priority Intelligence Requirements, or PIRs. A PIR is an intelligence requirement associated with a decision that will critically affect the overall success of the unit’s mission. PIRs are in four buckets: (1) what we want to know; (2) why we need it (linked to operational decision-making); (3) when we need it (LTIOV); and (4) how we want it (format). Although technology theoretically makes our tasks easier, it is important that the foundation of any technology is built on a solid foundation of proven doctrine and principles.
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